global spread of H3N2

[gsgs]

http://pathogens.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.0030131

Grippe uebersommert nicht in irgendwelchen Nischen
sondern wandert wahrscheinlich
auf die Suedhalbkugel und kommt dann das nächste Jahr zurück.

 

[Redcap]

Also doch nicht eingefroren?

 

[gsgs]

eher selten.

 

[Gänseerpel]

Also doch nicht eingefroren?
eher selten.

Kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass das ernsthaft irgendjemand behauptet. Liesse sich durch keinerlei Daten belegen.

Die permanente Evolution ist augenscheinlich und wird durch die sich ständig ändernden Strains repräsentiert.

 

[Gänseerpel]

Author Summary
The winter seasonality of influenza A virus in temperate climates is one of the most puzzling epidemiological patterns in infectious disease. To help resolve the issue of influenza seasonality, we studied, using viral genome sequence data, the patterns of global migration of influenza A virus, particularly between the northern and southern hemispheres. A phylogenetic analysis of approximately 900 complete genomes of the H3N2 subtype of human influenza A virus sampled from New Zealand and Australia (southern hemisphere), and New York state, United States (northern hemisphere), revealed that cross-hemisphere migration frequently occurs in both directions and involves multiple viral strains. Such global viral traffic therefore contributes significantly to the introduction of new influenza epidemics in both northern and southern hemispheres. These results also show that influenza A virus migrates afar during non-epidemic periods, rather than persisting locally at low levels during the influenza “off-season”. However, although this represents the largest and first bihemisphere study of its kind to our knowledge, the results highlight the need for sampling from tropical regions and during non-epidemic periods in temperate areas. Studies of this kind are critical to fully understand the geographical dispersal of influenza A virus and the role of climate in triggering seasonal epidemics.

Das widerspricht auch der Trinkwasser verbreitungsthese

 

[gsgs]

OK, I got 972 full H3N2 genoms from genbank with exact date
between 1999 and 2006. NZ,USA,and AUS.

Here is a graphics of #differences over time
for the full genome and the 8 segments.
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/gr32.JPG

The difference between full genome and e.g. segment 1
is presumably due to reassortments.

Some very few examples with little differences in viruses
0.7 or more years apart, which would indicate oversummering.
I haven't yet checked them.

The sequences are available in computer-radable form (13MB uncompressed)

I have a table with all the mutations, but it's 300 pages.
Maybe I can reduce it ...
I haven't yet looked for those sequences which obviously
went from NZ to USA or vice versa. So far I can't confirm
that claim. We had the Fujian-strain appearing in 2003/2004

 

[Gänseerpel]

Here is a graphics of #differences over time
for the full genome and the 8 segments.
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/gr32.JPG

Wieder mal nicht beschriftet.

 

[gsgs]

you can ask by email..

one pixel per pair of viruses(or segments)
x-axes: time between the isolation of the two viruses (or segments)
y-axes: number of differences

distance between two consecutive vertical bars is one year

9 graphs:
1) whole genom (y-value reduced)
2) PB2
3) ...
9) NS

today I've been trying to chase each single polymorphism,
how it emerges and then travels ...

I made some errors :-( , it's not ready yet to present

A/Auckland/603/2000 scheint von 2001 zu sein

ca. 10% der neu erworbenen Polymorphismen
erscheinen ebenfalls im naechsten Winter (1/2 Jahr) auf
der anderen Erdhalbkugel (NZ--NY)

nicht besonders ueberzeugend m.E.

ausserdem scheinen die Ergebnisse nicht auszuschliessen dass ein
Teil der Viren (asymptomatisch) in Menschen oder anderen
Tieren den Sommer ueberdauern. (while replicating
and mutating)


Fujian:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/nz_us2

Rest:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/nz_us1


Beschriftung wie zuvor...(Erklaerung bei FT)

 

[gsgs]

sieh hier die geordneteten Sequenzen (ganzes Genom),
wie die US und NZ - Viren sich gruppieren

http://magictour.free.fr/panflu\usnz.JPG

 

[gsgs]

delete....